On finding the way forward

 

We all face the dilemma of decision-making in an uncertain 

and rapidly changing world, the difficulty of making  a master plan, 

and how to go "uphill" in a world that has gravity and thermodynamic 

rules that insist you canonly go downhill.

It's a visual representation of the very simple organic core truth

 of Gerald Loeb's investment strategy and "take one step at a time,

act even in uncertainty, but be willing to reverse course if that doesn't seem to be working"

Loeb claimed he was "right" only  about 20% of the time, but those times he let his money

keep running, and the rest of the time he would instantly recognize that things were not

as he thought and get out of that stock or investment,  admitting the step was wrong,

with perfect humility and not "just waiting till it comes back up again," 

aka

* consultation ( as Baha'is see it )

* group decision making ( management theory )

* collective intelligence ( AI framework)

* swarm-based decision making ( ala bird flocks )

* decentralized collective decision-making  ( no obvious single leader )

* Participatory solving problems through collective action ( Mutual aid )

 
https://youtube.com/shorts/8T-uQ89GJOg?si=ZeNJS_drLMx6yKST

Perhaps another solidly reliable demonstration of this pattern

is the operation of a sailplane ( glider ).    

  This captures also one model of how to

accomplish global resuits (get from point A to point B)

from a rapid iterative cycle of local responsive sampling

and action,  effectively resolving a weak signal in a strong noise environment in

an analog fashion.  

It also captures operation in a world in which the vehicle

can only go "downhill",  bound by gravity and thermodynamics, and yet by

detection and exploitation of external "thermals" the net result is going uphill,

Sailplanes have three levels of input to the pilot,  corresponding to the three

typical inputs to any control system of a "PID controller",  short for 

Proportional-Integral-Derivative signals, ie  the signal itself,  the time integral

of the signal, and the derivative of the signal.  

The cockpit display shows your altitude ( very smoothed of noise ),  your rate-of-climb

( somewhat smoothed of noise), and your instantaneous vertical acceleration  which is fedback to you

via an audio signal whose pitch is instant feedback of whether you are "receiving" vertical lift or not.

The result is that you can immediately sort out what is helping versus what is not helping,

AT THIS EXACT MOMENT,  and guides a turn back into the thermal to circle there until that

train has run its course and you need to exit and go find your next thermal.

By circling in the thermal, you continue to go downhill ( with respect to the surrounding air mass), but you select a locally rising air-mass,  so the net effect of circling downhill is that you gain altitude.

In a noisy but highly variable ( risky, uncertain ) environment,  without a master plan if such could even exist, it is one way to succeed.

Another analog situation of course is the classic "sailboat" operation in which any direction wind can take a good pilot "uphill" to where they want to go.  

So what are the requirements to not simply be blown "downhill" and downwind?

it is critical to have a deep keel, probably even with a large weight at the bottom of it,

and a knowledge and understanding of "tacking" back and forth making "some" progress

uphill with each pass which, by thermodynamics, can only be physically "downhill". 

Again,  both sailplanes and sailboats and I would affirm humanity can only go "downhill",

but with understanding of the process and external energy input ( of any sort, at any 

direction, even variable and random ) but a constant deep keel,  the result we can 

accomplish is net progress "uphill".

I'd say that "Faith" is both the equivalent of a sail and a constant deep keel, that looks 

initially like a burden ( a weight? on the keel?  Something that forces you to go one way when

you want to be "free" to be yourself? ) but turns out to be a help.

Very much trading total freedom of a jellyfish at a local sense level, with no constraints, 

to the higher-freedom of a marathon runner,  who has constraints ( bones !) that "limit"

your motion, yet at the same time enable it.

The fact that we started 14 billion years ago as hot hydrogen and now we have Mozart

and daffodils tells the physics part of my scientific self that there is clearly an external

source of "energy" that conquers the downhill constraints of thermodynamics. 

Things we initially think are in our way are actually helpful.  Take "gravity" for

example.   Yes, it pulls us down, but without it there would be no planet to live on,

no star to heat it, etc.    Without gravity pulling cold air down,  hot air and smoke would

not rise.  Without gravity holding air down,  our airplanes and birds can fly.

 

It is a subtle process and not obvious, which things are our friends and which are our

enemies.

 

Another example of that is the shape and process of ''problems" or "difficulties" or "obstacles".

 Are these "bad things/"

 

Consider what the "obstacles" force us to do!  The Coast Guard develops cutters which right themselves if turned upside down by the waves, as shown in this photo from Morro Bay, CA.  We CAN and WILL overcome obstacles, motivated by the sincere desire to help other people who are in trouble.

 

 

 

The superb book on applied game design by Jane McGonigal argues that people, especially children just LOVE complexity and difficulties, with a catch -- they love intentionally and voluntarily chosen "unnecessary difficulties".

 

Example -- how long would you play golf if the target hole was a meter across and a meter away from the tee?  Maybe once.

Instead we have golf courses with trees in the middle of the fairway, with sharp bends and sand traps and lakes in the way, and a green on a convoluted slope,  Why?? Because we actually enjoy a challenge!  

 

Similarly children love games like Dungeons and Dragons with a thousand complex rules and factors.

 

McGonigal argues that the problem with our jobs at "work" is that they are not designed like great games, like World of Warcraft,  which challenge us and force us to rise to the challenge, collectively.   The joy of rising to an almost impossible challenge, voluntarily accepted, and conquering it together she calls "Fiero" is is what keeps people coming back for more.

 

This is the joy poeple feel in a natural disaster or actual battle which forces us to wake up, get out of our shell, and work together and work up a sweat beating the odds.  People don't want "easy" -- they want FIERO!

 

So when life, or Life, or the gods, or God, or nature gives us true "developmental opportunities" this is actually a gift, without which we would slowly decay and become depressed.

 

The kind of collective love and caring energy we need to stir up and bring to a challenge is not a "zero sum" thing -- the more we use it and try to give it away, the more of it there is to give away next time.

 

It is like the paradox of body building -- the way to get strong is to use up your muscles and become exhausted and weak, and then, overnight ( on good days ),  some kind of magic happens, and you wake up with more muscles than had 3 days ago.  

 

 

 

So don't leap to conclusions about which way is down,  what is a bad thing to happen, etc. 

 

Life conspires to force us to do those things that cause us to come together and collectively advance and evolve socially.

 

 

 The difference is that typical managers or bosses,  using mentality from the 1850's,  give us tasks to do in isolation that suck the life out of us, and exhaust us.    God / Gaia / Life gives us tasks which, net net, result in us becoming individually and collectively stronger and more joyous.  

 

If only all management would learn to follow the pattern that works and produces collective mutual thriving! But for sure, lesson number one, is that our tasks should bring us together and allow us, or even force us, to work together, which means rising to the challenge and learning how to work together, and how to ask for help, and how to give help when asked.

 

The most destructive way we could tackle tasks is to work separately and even compete for credit. 

 

Consider last the concept of an airplane.   Every single part of an airplane is heavier than air, and left to its own devices, put in the air, will fall out and crash.  Yet,  if they work together,  the plane can actually fly.      So can people!   Parts of the plane should not try to steal "flying-ness" from other parts.   The flyingness is not in the parts. it is basically external, tapped into by cooperation and consultation and compassion. 

 

 In fact,  and here other people may have different models and frames and stories, it seems to me that the "flyingness" and "thriving" and "abundance' is all around us, in this space,  trying every trick it has to make us wake up and become open to it flowing into and through us, making us thrive on multiple levels simultaneously.

 

Working together, singing as we do it, in joy and amazement at what we can accomplish - that's a blast! 

 

 

 As people in very cold countries know, the cold can push people together,  not apart,  I think in Sweden it is illegal if passing a motorist stopped with car troubles in winter, NOT to stop and help them out.